Cross-posting from dailykos:

From Marc Ambinder:

McCain In Amman, Jordan Today:

McCain: Well, it's common knowledge and has been reported in the media that Al Qaeda is going back into Iran and is receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran. That's well known and it's unfortunate. So I believe that we are succeeding in Iraq - the situation has dramatically improved, but I also want to emphasize time and again Al Qaeda is on the run, but they are not defeated. We are seeing a major battle take place in Mosul as we speak. The southern part of Iraq has other difficulties as we well know. So I am pleased with the progress, we have a long way to go, and I am deeply concerned about Iranian influence, not only in Iraq, but on nuclear weapons; on sponsorship of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations, and if we leave Iraq it will enhance Iranian influence in the region to the detriment, I think, of every nation in the region.

[Lieberman whispers in McCain's ear]

McCain: I'm sorry; the Iranians are training the extremists, not Al Qaeda. Not Al Qaeda. I'm sorry.

Ambinder

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/20 07/10/sen_pete_domenici_expected_to.html #comments

As long as Cillizza's sources are solid, NM has become a top-tier pickup opportunity.  Rep. Heather Wilson is often mentioned as Pete's successor, but the US Attorney scandal may have scuttled that career path.  The other major R option seems Rep. Steve Pearce, who is significantly more conservative (think Bob Schaffer in CO).  If Wilson were to run, her seat would probably become lean-Dem, while Pierce's seat is likely GOP (though not  safe - his opponent's numbers were in the 40's last election IIRC).

For the D's, the top two options seem to be Albequerque Mayor Martin Chavez and Rep. Tom Udall.  My personal preference would be for the latter; Chavez is quite conservative and had previously endorsed Domenici.  But either guy would probably have the edge over Wilson or Pearce, particularly in this environment.  Cillizza also mentions Lt.Gov Diane Denish, but she seems more interested in Richardson's current job, and fmr AG Patricia Madrid, but she flubbed a debate with Wilson and is considered damaged goods.

The ginormous donkey in the room is obviously Richardson himself, but he doesn't seem particularly interested (given that he's a shoe-in for Veep or State if he weren't to get the nod).

As long as candidate recruitment goes worse than expected, I would rank this as the fourth lean Dem race thus far (after VA, NH, and CO).

The right is currently ecstatic that there is a majority opposed to helping undocumented immigrants become equal members of society.  Witness Scott Rasmussen, for instance, trumpeting opposition to  the McCain-Kennedy immigration reform framework.  But in a 6/22-24/07 CNN poll, we get a very different story.

19/19A.  Do you oppose the Senate immigration bill MOSTLY because you think it goes too far toward helping illegal immigrants, or MOSTLY because it does not go far enough toward helping illegal
immigrants?

Favor bill about illegal immigration (from Q.19) 30%
Oppose bill because it goes too far toward helping 28%
illegal immigrants
Oppose bill because it does not go far enough 15%
toward helping illegal immigrants
Oppose bill, no opinion on Q.19A 4%
Don't know enough to say (vol.) 19%
No opinion 3%

Poll link

So pluralists beat bigots 45%-28% (or 45%-32% if we're being generous).  This is reflected in other polls that say that a majority supports a pathway to citizenship.

In other news, cloture on the immigration bill has passed 64-35 (those 35 include 25 R's, 9 D's, and Sanders). Note that Bernie was probably the only opponent to have opposed the bill from the "left" - based on the guest worker program creating a permanent, two-tiered class of residents. Supposedly, this was the big procedural hurdle, and the final bill would have to pass by only a tie vote after all the Amendments are added (since Cheney's a vote in favor). The last cloture motion got 45 votes IIRC, so getting that to 50 seems doable.

Roll Call

From Rasmussen:

Democrats
Republicans

Obama:
59% favorable / 34% unfavorable => 25% net favorable

Edwards:
57% favorable / 35% unfavorable => 22% net favorable

Giuliani:
58% favorable / 38% unfavorable => 20% net favorable

McCain:
55% favorable / 39% unfavorable => 16% net favorable

SUSA just came out with a fascinating poll on the legality of the NSA wiretapping program.

The First thing to note is that they created definite categories, "Clear That Bush Obeyed The Law" and "Clear That Bush Broke The Law."  This methodology shows a much higher number of undecideds (22% nationally) than other polls on this issue (and there's an additional several percent unfamiliar, who are not mentioned in the summary).  And it demonstrates that there's still a lot of swayable opinion.

The second thing to note is that the numbers are breaking for us, where clearly illegal is 40%, compared to clearly legal as 31%.  If the undecideds break in a similar way, expect impeachment calls.

The state most friendly to civil liberties is Vermont where the percentage who think that Bush broke the law subtracted by the percentage who think that Bush obeyed the law is 29%.

The most authoritarian state (oddly enough) is Nebraska, with a net score of -12%.  

Whereas with abortion, the West is politically distinct from the South, this is largely not the case with the NSA program (excluding the Southwest - CO, AZ, and NV).  Very strange in my opinion, not at all what I expected.

Now, onto the '06 Senate goodies (again, the net libertarian-ness):

http://www.surveyusa.com/50state2005/50StateAbortion0805SortedbyProChoice.htm

Very interesting info.

There are only 13 states where people who consider themselves pro-life outnumber those who consider themselves pro-choice.  This list includes more traditional Dem strongholds in the South like Louisiana (pro-life by  19%, second only to Utah), Arkansas (pro-life by 15%, number three), West Virginia (by 14%), and Tennessee (9%).  In the South, only the Atlantic states (particularly, Florida and Virginia, obviously) and Texas (pro-choice by 9% - puts Cornyn's pitiful approval ratings in context) bizarrely enough, are looking good for us.

The West is solidly pro-choice.  And I don't just mean the Pacific.  Nevada by 32% (as pro-choice as Rhode Island), Colorado by 22%, Alaska by 19%, Wyoming by 18%, New Mexico by 17%, Arizona by 17%, and Montana by 9%.  Only Utah and Idaho go the other way, while the Dakotas and Nebraska are in the middle.

The Northeast is, of course, the most pro-choice region.

The mid-West is generally in the middle (but leaning pro-choice as a whole).  And I do mean all of the mid-West.  Including Kansas (pro-choice by 5% - how exactly did Brownback get elected???), Oklahoma (pro-life by 1%), and Indiana (pro-life by 3%).

What's the lesson here?  By running strong civil libertarian platforms, we can break the Republican coalition apart and take back the West.  There are also juicy possibilities in the mid-West and on the Atlantic.  Elsewhere, a more populist oriented track seems more fruitful (especially Louisiana is Mississippi, obviously).

Total 41% approve, 55% disapprove (hello '30's).

Tastiest state numbers:

state: approval/disapproval (change in net approval from from 7/11)

Ohio: 37%/60% (+0%)
Still ripe for a Dem sweep.

Missouri:  38%/58%(-6%)
Paging Claire McCaskill.

Rhode Island:  29%/68% (-11%)
This is the THE worst state for Dear Leader.  He'll be toxic for Linc.

Nevada:  40%/57% (+2%)
Reid treating Ensign with kid gloves just ain't tolerable.  This is one of our best pickup opportunities.  Get recruiting!

Arkansas:  40%/56% (-7%)
Gov. Beebe?

Virginia:  42%/52% (-9%)
Some momentum for Kaine?

Montana:  50%/45% (-5%)
At this rate, Shrub won't be a plus for Burns.

Maryland:  34%/62% (-11%)
New Jersey: 35/61% (-10%)
Michigan: 38%/58% (-9%)
Minnesota: 39%/59% (-20%!!)
So much for defense.

Pennsylvania:  40%/56% (-3%)
He's doing even worse than the frothy mix of lube and fecal matter.

California:  32%/62% (-6%)
Gov. Angelides

http://surveyusa.com/50StatePOTUS0805.htm